Vermont Smart Growth, Vehicle Miles Traveled, and Greenhouse Gas Research

As highlighted in the 2021 Vermont Climate Action Plan, the transportation sector generates 40% of the state's Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions. To comply with the 2020 Global Warming Solutions Act, Vermont needs to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to 26% below 2005 levels by 2025, 40% below 1990 levels by 2030, and 80% below 1990 levels by 2050. This project will develop a better understanding of the effects of land use patterns on overall travel behavior and GHG emissions will be a critical step to inform the actions advanced in VTrans' Sustainable Transportation Plan.

This project explored the hypothesis that compact, mixed use development patterns generate fewer VMT and GHG emissions per person than more dispersed or rural settlement patterns. A model was developed relating built environment measures in Vermont communities to weekly per capita VMT estimates by leveraging passively collected, location-based services data. Several future scenarios were quantified to demonstrate the degree to which smart growth strategies can reduce VMT to meet transportation related GHG emission reduction targets and quantify the co-benefits of smart growth strategies beyond GHG emission reductions.

Focusing future growth in areas with low VMT and emulating prototype smart growth communities were most effective in reducing weekly per capita VMT overall, reducing VMT by an estimated 10 miles per person per week compared to more dispersed growth scenarios. Smart growth strategies were demonstrated to contribute to over 15% of the annual GHG reduction needed to achieve the 2050 GWSA targets. Conversely, dispersed settlement patterns produced an increase in emissions of up to 20% of the annual target, working against other mechanisms to drive down annual GHG emissions. Future scenarios demonstrated the co-benefits of smart growth strategies on safety with 1 avoided traffic death and over 30 avoided traffic injuries per year; health with reduced physical inactivity mortality saving nearly 4 lives annually; and maintenance with reduced annual maintenance costs by over $1.5 million. Case study communities offered further insights on VMT and GHG reductions possible through implementation of smart growth strategies. Specifically, the scenario results for case study communities highlighted the need for jobs in proximity to denser, mixed land uses to achieve targeted VMT and GHG reductions; the opportunity to enhance the existing patterns in Vermont of denser centers surrounded by more rural areas through context sensitive modifications to density, land use mix, infrastructure, and proximity to jobs; and, the influence of regional neighbors on VMT where condensed movement patterns within town centers are often complemented by more expansive travel patterns to adjacent communities.

Vermont Smart Growth, Vehicle Miles Traveled, and Greenhouse Gas Research

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